About

This site provides forecasts on stock prices. You should use this for entertainment and education purposes only. We are not liable for losses you incur using this data. You will lose money if you put money in the stock market.

The results are created by taking historical stock prices and fiscal data and using data mining techniques to build predictions. This is done by randomly splitting the data in half and creating a training set and a test set. The training set has its solutions populated and the machine learns the most significant statistically correlations. It uses this to build a model of how to generate the results for the future. The test set is only used to score how well the predictions worked. The results are only as good as the data is accurate and complete. Mistakes do occur both with the imported data and with the companies themselves. When we get corrected data we use it immediately. However, this just underscores that human error is part of this process and nothing is perfect. In short if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. If you see a mistake and want to notify us feel free to contact us at basicanddaft@gmail.com. We are not liable for data entry mistakes or corrections made to financial data (by our data providers or the companies we report on).

From these data two predictions are made. One is for the price change in terms of a percentage at 120 days out. The other prediction is for volatility of the price at 120 days out. The price prediction is conservative. It does not use sentiment, news or anything not reported to the SEC. The volatility indicator is far more aggressive and while itself represents a prediction of sorts, should be used to indicate a likelyhood of stock price movement (positive or negative). The larger value the more likely of movement and the larger the movement.

Predictions will be made once a day after market close and should (baring incident) be available before 9:30 Eastern the next day. No predictions are made at the end of day if the US stock markets are not open. The predictions do tend to change day to day. This is generally because of price movement, new daily financial data and adjustments to the predictive model. A 12% gain one day might be -5% the next and they will probably both be wrong. In some cases a stock does data does not change day to day beyond price movement. In some of those cases the prediction may stay the same (say 10% up) even though it takes a 5% drop day over day. The program evaluates each day in issolation. But in some cases a stocks daily movement hardly effects the prediction at all. The trick (if there is a trick) is producing the lowest error on average.

There will be times when the latest updates are not available. This is generally due to software improvements or unforseen hardware outages. If such a thing were to occur the data for the last successful run will continue to be shown until it is fixed. This can happen and will likely happen from time to time. This is one more reason, you should not be using this site to make financial decisions. We are not liable for such outages.